International Journal of Emerging Trends in Management

Vol. 2 No. 2 (2026): International Journal of Emerging Trends in Management
Original reseach article

Managing destination image and tourist loyalty: A PLS-SEM and explainable machine-learning study of foreign tourists in Serbia

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  • Marko Bajić,
  • José Antonio "TJ" Villamil
Marko Bajić
Ark Sustainable Solutions, Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA
José Antonio "TJ" Villamil
Independent Researcher, Florida, USA

Published 05.07.2026

Keywords

  • destination management,
  • tourism marketing management,
  • customer experience management,
  • destination image,
  • tourist satisfaction,
  • revisit intention,
  • Serbia
    • ...More
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How to Cite

Managing destination image and tourist loyalty: A PLS-SEM and explainable machine-learning study of foreign tourists in Serbia. (2026). International Journal of Emerging Trends in Management, 2(2), 58-75. https://doi.org/10.65984/ETM2.2.2

Abstract

This study examines destination image and tourist loyalty as management outcomes shaped by country-level promotion, destination offering, customer experience evaluation, and data-driven decision support. Drawing on a foreign-tourist sample in Serbia (N = 1,030), the study estimates a partial least squares structural equation model (PLS-SEM) and complements it with an exploratory explainable machine-learning (XAI) analysis. The results show that perceived effectiveness of Serbia's tourism promotion strengthens the overall image of Serbia, which strongly transfers to the image of the current destination. Perceived destination offering contributes to both destination image and satisfaction, while destination image is the strongest direct predictor of satisfaction and also contributes to revisit intention. Satisfaction additionally supports revisit intention, although loyalty-related variance remains modest. The XAI results converge with the structural model by highlighting destination image and perceived destination offering as the main predictors of satisfaction, while revisit intention appears less sharply determined. The study contributes to destination management and marketing management by showing how national promotion, local experience performance, and analytics-based evidence can be integrated into a coherent managerial framework for emerging tourism destinations. The findings should be interpreted as pre-pandemic evidence collected immediately before the COVID-19 disruption of international tourism. The main methodological limitations are the extensive use of single-item global evaluation measures and the modest explained variance for revisit intention.

 

Article history: Received (May 29, 2026); Revised (June 04, 2026); Accepted (June 28, 2026); Published online (June 29, 2026)

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